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The preliminary final weekend is often regarded as one for the purists, for the best four teams are left, and many a senior coach has said it’s the toughest challenge of the year.
That may be the case, but the Blues, under Michael Voss, are playing with extraordinary belief, as they prepare for combat on the penultimate weekend of the season for the first time in 23 years.
Happy Days: Patrick Cripps battled a bleeding nose to help edge the Blues to victory over the Demons. It’s now on to Brisbane.Credit: Getty Images
It’s amazing to think this was a club under extreme pressure mid-season amid a six-game losing streak, but the decision to remain united behind Voss, and adjust the game plan, has worked a treat.
Voss remains arguably the greatest Lion of all time having captained the club to three straight flags, but this was also a club which dispensed of his services after five years as coach. All this will add to the theatre heading into this contest at the Gabba.
Patrick Cripps is relishing the big stage he craved for a decade, while Sam Walsh has been brilliant against the Swans and Demons. Charlie Curnow will also have a significant say in events this weekend, the Blues having not won at the Gabba against the Lions since 2013.
For the Lions, they could not be better placed. They have a relatively healthy list, are at home, and on a five-game winning streak. Since round 18, they have gone from 17th to No.1 in ball movement. Coach Chris Fagan said on the eve of the Lions’ fifth-straight finals campaign under his watch that this was their best chance of tasting the ultimate success, and it’s hard to argue against that.
The Lions last lost at home in round 23 last season and are on a 13-game streak at the Gabba. And they boast Charlie Cameron, the livewire All-Australian forward who excels in September. Look out for Cameron Rayner to again have a major impact.
History lesson
When these two teams last met, the Lions prevailed by 26 points at Marvel Stadium, on a night Blues’ fans vented their displeasure, many leaving at three quarter-time when their side trailed by 40 points. Cripps was held to only 17 touches by Josh Dunkley, the latter picking up 33 possessions. That was the Blues’ third defeat in four games. The Blues have since transformed, but history is on the Lions’ side, having prevailed in the past four games between the teams. This is the fourth final between the clubs, the Lions with a 2-1 edge. They last met in September in 2009, when the Lions won by seven points at the Gabba, Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw combining for nine goals for the Lions, while Brendan Fevola had three for the Blues.
Hear me roar: Charlie Cameron has the ability to turn the Gabba into his own field of dreams.Credit: AFL Photos / Getty Images
Injury report
Brisbane Lions: Will Ashcroft (knee) would be in their best 22 if healthy, but he is out for the season. However, Jack Gunston (knee) is pushing for a return. He trained strongly last week, and is hoping for a chance at a fourth flag, having won three with the Hawks.
Carlton: Blake Acres (shoulder) and Sam Docherty (dislocated shoulder) will be monitored, but Acres, having delivered the match-winning goal against the Demons, says he will be fit to play. Jacob Weitering appears to be carrying a sore wrist, while Carlton said on Saturday he had taken a blow to the throat, not the head. Harry McKay (concussion) remains in health-and-safety protocols, and will need to pass cognitive tests later in the week if he is to be available for selection. The Blues overlooked Jack Silvagni (knee) but he will have another week to prove his fitness. Jack Martin (suspension) will return.
The critical moment: Blake Acres boots the winning goal.Credit: Channel Seven
Tactics
The Lions are primed, a point reinforced in how they destroyed the Power. They were dominant in the contest, booting a staggering 13.3 from clearances. But the Blues pride themselves on winning the contest, and are ranked No.1 for scores from stoppages. That the Lions lead the competition this year for average points scored from turnover (55), the Blues are the only finalist in the negative in this category, and points from turnover differential (+14), phases the past three premiers have ranked No.1 in, bodes well. Dunkley is likely to again head to Cripps, while Jacob Weitering and his backline mates will need to find a way to curb marking talls Joe Daniher (five goals against the Power) and Eric Hipwood (one goal). The Blues may also look to rough up Cameron, the Power having targeted him last week, curbing his influence until half-time. The Blues are playing with great belief, and Tom De Koning, floating between the forward line and ruck, shapes as an x-factor.
Early prediction
Brisbane Lions by 11 points
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